How Prediction Markets Work
Every JockBroker market is built around Fantasy Points — pick the player or team that will lead in FPs for the day. Here's everything you need to know.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets are skill-based contests where you predict which player or team will lead in fantasy points across a given day. Instead of picking over/under on a single line, you choose from a field of options — like picking which NBA center will have the most fantasy points tonight.
Your entry fee goes into a shared pool. If your pick wins, you earn a share of the pool based on the odds at the time you entered. JockBroker never takes the other side — all winnings come from the entry pool.
Market Types
Top Performer
Pick which player will lead all players in fantasy points for a sport on a given day. The top 15 projected players are listed as options.
Example: "Which player leads ALL FPs tonight?" — choose from Wembanyama, SGA, Jokic, etc.
Position Leaders
Pick which player at a specific position will lead in fantasy points. NBA has 5 position markets: PG, SG, SF, PF, and C. Up to 12 players per position market.
Example: "Which Center leads in FPs tonight?" — choose from Wembanyama, Towns, Adebayo, etc.
Team Battle
Pick which team will score the most total points in their game. All teams playing that day are listed.
Example: "Which team scores the most tonight?" — choose from Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets, etc.
How Odds & Multipliers Work
Each option in a market has a multiplier (e.g., 11.8x) and a probability (e.g., 7.6%). These are derived from projected fantasy points using a power-law transformation.
How the Math Works
- 1Each player's projected fantasy points are calculated from recent performance, matchups, and statistical models.
- 2Projections are raised to the power of 0.7 (a power-law transformation). This compresses the gap between favorites and long shots, giving lower-projected players more realistic odds than a simple linear ratio would.
- 3The probability = player's powered projection ÷ sum of all powered projections. Formula:
FPs0.7 / Σ(all FPs0.7) - 4The multiplier = (1 / probability) × 0.9. The 0.9 factor is the 10% platform fee. Higher-projected players still have lower multipliers, but the spread is more balanced than a linear ratio.
Example: Top Performer Market (15 options, ~600 total projected FPs)
| Player | Projected FPs | Probability | Multiplier | $10 Entry Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama (SAS) | 48.0 | ~7.6% | 11.8x | $118 |
| Nikola Jokic (DEN) | 44.6 | ~7.2% | 12.5x | $125 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) | 38.8 | ~6.6% | 13.6x | $136 |
Without the power-law, a simple linear ratio would give Wembanyama ~8.0% and SGA ~6.5% — the power-law narrows this gap so long shots aren't unrealistically cheap. As real money enters the pool, odds shift dynamically based on where people are entering — the market finds its own price.
How Parimutuel Pooling Works
JockBroker uses a parimutuel pooling model. All entry fees for a market are combined into a single pool. After deducting the 10% platform fee, the remaining pool is distributed proportionally among those who picked the winning option. Odds transition gradually from projection-based to pool-based as money enters the market.
Blended Odds Transition
Rather than a hard switch, odds blend smoothly from projections to pool activity. This prevents a single small entry from wildly distorting the market.
The platform never bets against you — all winnings come from the pool of entries. The 10% fee is taken off the top before any payouts.
Single & Multi-Leg Entries
You can submit a single pick on one market, or combine picks from multiple markets into a multi-leg entry (parlay).
- Single pick: Pick one option from one market. Simpler, lower risk.
- Multi-leg (2–10 picks): Combine picks from different markets. All legs must win for the entry to pay out. Higher risk, higher reward.
Leg Multiplier Formula
Multi-leg entries receive a bonus multiplier on top of the market odds:
leg_multiplier = max(1.5, 1 + (active_legs × 0.5))
| Legs | Multiplier |
|---|---|
| 1 leg | 1.5x |
| 2 legs | 2.0x |
| 3 legs | 2.5x |
| 5 legs | 3.5x |
Final payout = entry_fee × leg_multiplier × card_boost (if applicable). Entry fees range from $1 to $500.
Quick Parlays
Don't have time to build a slip from scratch? Quick Parlays are pre-built 2–3 leg combos generated by JockBroker each day based on that night's available markets.
- ✓Same rules, same odds, same settlement as any multi-leg entry.
- ✓Enter with one tap, or customize the picks before submitting.
- ✓New suggestions generated daily based on the night's slate of games.
Quick Parlays are a convenience feature — they follow the exact same leg multiplier formula and payout rules as any entry you build yourself.
Settlement & Scoring
Markets are daily markets — they cover all games for a sport on a given day. Settlement happens after all games for that day are complete, using official statistics from SportRadar.
The winning option is the player/team with the highest actual fantasy points (or highest actual score for team markets) across all games that day.
36-Hour Stat Finality Window
After initial settlement, there is a 36-hour finality window during which official stat corrections may be applied. If a correction changes the outcome, the market is re-settled. After 36 hours, results are final.
Available Sports
NBA
PG, SG, SF, PF, C
NFL
QB, RB, WR, TE
NHL
Forward, Defenseman
MLB
Pitcher, Infielder, Outfielder
Each sport generates daily markets for Top Performer, Position Leaders, and Team Battle. Markets are created automatically based on that day's scheduled games.
Dispute Resolution
- 1You have 72 hours after settlement to file a dispute.
- 2Our team reviews disputes within 5 business days.
- 3If unresolved, disputes proceed to binding arbitration per our Terms of Service.
Responsible Gaming
JockBroker is committed to responsible gaming. We provide tools to help you stay in control:
- Deposit limits (daily, weekly, monthly)
- Self-exclusion options
- Cool-off periods
- Transaction history and spending summaries
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).